Covid’s third wave is expected to arrive this month, with a peak in October, report suggests

According to researchers, India might experience another spike in Covid-19 cases as early as August, with the third wave peaking at less than 100,000 infections per day in the best-case scenario and around 150,000 in the worst-case scenario. The spike in Covid-19 cases, according to Bloomberg, could drive the coronavirus pandemic into its third wave, which might peak in October, citing researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur, respectively. States with high Covid-19 instances, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could “skew the picture,” Vidyasagar told Bloomberg in an email.

The third wave of Covid-19 is unlikely to be as brutal as the second wave when India reported 400,000-plus daily cases and came down after that. The prediction by the researchers, who accurately forecast the lessening of the surge in Covid-19 cases earlier this year, is based on a mathematical model.

In May, Vidyasagar, a professor at IIT Hyderabad said India’s coronavirus outbreak could peak in the coming days based on the mathematical model. “Our predictions are that the peak will come within a few days. As per current projections, we should hit 20,000 cases per day by the end of June. We will revise this as needed,” Vidyasagar told Bloomberg by email.