Chances of fourth COVID-19 wave is ‘very minimal’: virologist Jacob John

Dr T Jacob John, an eminent virologist and former Christian Medical College (CMC) Vellore professor, stated on Tuesday that the likelihood of a fourth COVID-19 wave in India is “very low.”

When questioned why certain states are reporting a rise in COVID-19 cases, the virologist stated that while Delhi and Haryana experienced slight increases in COVID numbers in the last two to three weeks, the increase was not maintained. To his knowledge, no state was reporting an increase in COVID-19 cases.

To the best of my knowledge, no state has reported an increase in COVID-19 instances. So far in March and April, India has maintained “low and generally consistent levels,” Dr. John said.

Delhi and Haryana have seen slight gains in the previous two to three weeks, but the trend is not sustainable. In Delhi, one thousand instances equates to only five per lakh people. During the “endemic” period, which applies to India and all states, we should not expect a constant reduction in the population. “Continuous falls are impossible to achieve since the terminus of such a graph is zero,” he noted.

The virologist stated once more that the likelihood of a fourth wave is exceedingly low.

If a fourth wave appears, it will come as a complete surprise to me. As a result, I can’t make any educated guesses regarding it.

The likelihood of a fourth wave is quite remote. Our best defence against the negative impacts of a wave is widespread immunisation. A complete vaccination consists of two doses plus a prophylactic dose at least six months afterwards. According to Dr. John, the official interpretation of two doses as a complete immunisation is unscientific.

Currently, population-based immunisation coverage is 75% for one dose and 65% for two doses.

When asked what should be done to contain the outbreak, the virologist stated, “The number one fault is not using the mask.” I’m concerned that specialists and policymakers haven’t taught people the importance of wearing a mask when dealing with others.

When asked if schools would be closed since students in numerous states tested positive for COVID-19,

No, not at all. Schools should be kept open. “During the “endemic phase,” which is our present and future, we will encounter an occasional instance that must be dealt with on a case-by-case basis,” Dr. John said.

So, is there a new coronavirus variant? The virologist replied negatively to this.

“There have been ups and downs everywhere there have been ups. The rises are not sustained in any way. As a result, I don’t believe a new variation is involved. However, variation screening must be maintained in order for the virus not to surprise us again “He took notice.